* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 90 87 84 76 71 67 63 60 58 55 52 V (KT) LAND 90 91 90 87 84 76 71 67 63 60 58 55 52 SHEAR (KTS) 16 20 24 29 35 35 31 31 31 28 19 19 15 SHEAR DIR 327 318 301 287 277 273 256 248 243 253 244 258 251 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.4 24.6 22.9 20.8 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 133 129 126 123 118 117 114 107 96 87 83 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -54.9 -54.2 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 500-300 MB RH 55 57 55 56 53 48 48 41 37 44 50 55 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 6 2 -3 0 81 36 -6 -17 0 1 1 5 850 MB VORT 22 21 20 29 52 53 73 77 105 117 124 128 114 LAND (KM) 1474 1423 1364 1307 1253 1144 1042 968 932 984 1189 1416 1601 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.9 33.6 34.3 35.0 36.4 37.4 38.4 39.5 41.0 42.9 44.9 46.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 56.4 56.0 55.5 54.9 53.4 51.4 49.5 47.2 43.7 39.0 34.8 31.0 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 10 8 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 649 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 55 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -15. -23. -30. -38. -45. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -11. -9. -5. 0. 4. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -6. -13. -18. -22. -26. -28. -30. -34. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 0. -3. -6. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -32. -35. -38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 43.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.15 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 4.19 Prob of RI= 14.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)