* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FIFTEEN 09/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 54 57 60 61 60 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 54 57 60 61 60 57 SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 6 4 3 13 11 19 15 14 19 30 32 SHEAR DIR 267 279 287 295 197 240 234 257 259 269 254 248 242 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 159 157 157 155 157 155 152 149 146 148 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 500-300 MB RH 52 50 49 53 55 48 53 53 48 40 40 36 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -1 -1 0 1 4 0 0 0 -4 -12 5 2 850 MB VORT 37 34 24 32 38 0 21 8 6 -28 -49 -56 -43 LAND (KM) 932 960 989 1004 1007 957 897 840 778 751 764 940 1339 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.8 30.4 31.2 31.9 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 67.7 67.8 68.2 68.5 69.1 70.0 70.5 70.7 70.4 69.4 66.7 62.2 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 17 18 21 24 21 19 18 16 17 30 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 707 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 20. 20. 18. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 38. 36. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 29. 32. 35. 36. 35. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIFTEEN 9/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.79 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.47 Prob of RI= 18.6% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)