* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 48 53 56 59 61 62 62 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 29 28 27 27 27 32 35 35 35 SHEAR (KTS) 19 22 19 14 19 15 11 10 8 8 11 13 11 SHEAR DIR 204 200 209 198 195 222 220 234 205 218 203 248 218 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 160 160 160 160 157 157 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 500-300 MB RH 53 54 51 53 50 46 43 38 37 34 36 34 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 12 6 2 5 3 4 1 3 4 0 3 4 850 MB VORT 28 47 44 39 34 -8 0 -20 1 -4 25 -1 2 LAND (KM) 139 107 74 26 -10 -57 -88 -48 -9 40 80 30 19 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.5 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.1 79.4 79.9 80.3 81.1 81.7 82.1 82.5 83.1 83.9 84.9 86.1 HEAT CONTENT 76 82 77 66 64 9999 9999 9999 21 17 12 12 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 602 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 19. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. 43. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.67 Prob of RI= 24.3% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)