* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 92 88 83 76 70 65 60 56 53 48 45 V (KT) LAND 95 95 92 88 83 76 70 65 60 56 53 48 45 SHEAR (KTS) 23 25 30 30 37 28 30 29 27 24 23 24 31 SHEAR DIR 318 305 294 291 277 275 253 243 248 254 244 232 225 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.7 25.0 23.5 22.1 20.0 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 127 125 121 117 116 110 100 92 84 77 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -54.3 -54.4 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -54.2 -54.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 500-300 MB RH 55 56 57 56 51 50 42 38 38 46 46 51 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 0 1 -4 14 49 1 -12 -9 -5 -2 10 18 850 MB VORT 24 17 28 48 58 79 70 92 96 118 118 112 122 LAND (KM) 1430 1391 1341 1287 1238 1123 1037 972 984 1087 1289 1411 1534 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.6 35.3 36.6 37.6 38.9 40.4 42.0 43.5 46.0 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 56.2 55.7 55.1 54.5 52.6 50.3 47.7 44.5 41.1 37.3 34.4 32.0 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 8 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 678 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -28. -37. -46. -54. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -16. -14. -11. -6. -2. 3. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -20. -26. -30. -34. -38. -41. -45. -48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -3. -7. -12. -19. -25. -30. -35. -39. -42. -47. -50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 27.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 36.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.08 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.84 Scaled RI index= 4.12 Prob of RI= 13.2% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)