* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FIFTEEN 09/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 47 55 62 67 71 73 71 67 63 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 47 55 62 67 71 73 71 67 63 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 3 1 4 6 9 13 11 9 24 29 39 SHEAR DIR 292 310 340 206 204 225 243 266 263 276 249 245 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 159 157 155 152 151 148 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 500-300 MB RH 46 45 48 51 50 47 51 50 41 39 41 42 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -5 6 -2 7 850 MB VORT 43 27 22 26 15 11 26 18 15 -20 -51 -89 -75 LAND (KM) 977 971 965 959 955 963 921 807 695 624 584 627 721 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.3 30.1 30.8 31.5 32.0 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 66.9 67.1 67.5 67.9 68.7 69.9 70.9 71.6 71.8 71.6 70.5 69.0 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 22 19 21 25 21 19 17 17 21 13 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 628 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 20. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 30. 36. 41. 43. 42. 39. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 32. 37. 41. 43. 41. 37. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FIFTEEN 9/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.80 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 5.33 Prob of RI= 47.9% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)