* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 36 43 49 54 58 60 61 61 61 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 36 30 28 27 27 31 32 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 25 21 17 20 20 13 15 6 10 8 13 10 12 SHEAR DIR 194 202 189 196 209 214 207 212 196 189 210 243 249 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 162 162 160 160 162 160 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 8 9 5 8 5 9 500-300 MB RH 52 48 50 47 47 47 40 40 38 37 38 37 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 9 7 9 9 9 9 0 3 3 2 3 1 850 MB VORT 48 49 32 31 23 0 -7 -6 0 4 12 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 147 109 72 30 6 -26 -68 -88 -39 14 34 -31 -71 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.5 30.2 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.1 79.4 79.8 80.2 80.8 81.3 81.7 82.2 83.0 83.8 84.7 85.6 HEAT CONTENT 80 78 71 65 63 9999 9999 9999 9999 13 12 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 537 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 26. 31. 36. 40. 42. 42. 43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 40. 41. 41. 41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 144.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.43 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 4.61 Prob of RI= 22.0% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)