* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 43 44 43 39 36 32 26 19 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 43 44 43 39 36 32 26 19 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 12 12 9 13 8 15 9 13 18 35 34 SHEAR DIR 27 37 38 53 55 16 15 346 343 326 275 279 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.5 25.6 25.2 25.0 25.0 24.8 24.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 140 138 131 122 118 116 116 114 110 108 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 500-300 MB RH 61 60 57 52 48 42 36 33 27 32 29 27 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -2 0 1 2 -2 -5 -11 -8 -6 -1 -5 10 850 MB VORT -40 -39 -44 -35 -30 -26 -11 -14 -22 -20 -30 -40 -42 LAND (KM) 722 722 746 791 851 1006 1180 1383 1591 1810 1971 2015 1920 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.1 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.4 113.6 114.8 115.9 118.6 121.5 124.6 127.9 130.9 133.6 135.6 136.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 665 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 12. 11. 9. 5. -1. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 19. 18. 14. 11. 7. 1. -6. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.35 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.74 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 3.92 Prob of RI= 26.1% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)