* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 82 77 73 67 62 58 55 53 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 90 87 82 77 73 67 62 58 55 53 50 48 46 SHEAR (KTS) 28 33 30 38 37 31 30 27 28 25 23 29 35 SHEAR DIR 304 292 283 279 273 259 244 244 253 256 254 232 231 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.6 23.2 20.9 18.7 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 128 126 125 119 118 114 107 98 87 80 75 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -56.5 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 56 57 56 52 48 50 49 48 44 47 52 51 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 0 22 46 20 -1 -4 -14 2 5 21 11 850 MB VORT 11 31 47 56 61 86 75 83 111 120 115 84 62 LAND (KM) 1392 1354 1311 1271 1233 1094 1010 958 984 1104 1315 1467 1454 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.7 34.3 35.0 35.6 36.9 38.1 39.5 41.0 42.7 44.8 47.6 50.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 56.0 55.3 54.6 53.8 51.8 49.1 46.6 43.7 40.3 36.2 33.2 31.2 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 692 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -27. -35. -44. -52. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -16. -13. -9. -4. 0. 5. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -21. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -17. -23. -28. -31. -34. -36. -39. -41. -42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -13. -17. -23. -28. -32. -35. -37. -40. -42. -43. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 39.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.11 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 3.53 Prob of RI= 6.0% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)