* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 58 64 69 72 73 73 68 62 55 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 58 64 69 72 73 73 68 62 55 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 3 6 9 17 23 16 23 23 33 34 48 SHEAR DIR 317 325 251 252 266 263 274 281 273 251 246 252 264 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 157 154 152 149 146 145 143 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 500-300 MB RH 45 49 53 51 47 53 50 53 42 46 37 39 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -7 -6 -19 3 -1 -11 9 850 MB VORT 41 31 30 24 6 21 3 13 -15 -10 -37 -55 -39 LAND (KM) 1036 1032 1028 1035 1044 955 839 750 720 707 706 787 933 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.8 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.1 32.6 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.8 67.1 67.5 67.8 68.8 69.8 70.2 70.0 69.7 69.4 68.1 66.1 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 20 17 17 22 21 16 15 16 18 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 526 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 34. 30. 23. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 14. 18. 24. 29. 32. 33. 33. 28. 22. 15. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.6% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)