* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 55 61 66 69 69 68 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 55 61 66 69 69 68 65 SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 17 16 10 12 10 10 7 12 18 14 23 SHEAR DIR 208 183 171 189 198 192 189 168 195 214 263 269 289 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 8 9 8 9 6 500-300 MB RH 51 53 54 50 49 48 43 42 37 38 38 42 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 3 5 8 8 5 6 0 3 5 1 3 5 850 MB VORT 34 24 28 33 11 13 -2 14 0 15 -31 -11 -48 LAND (KM) 180 153 126 98 71 44 52 78 93 120 156 156 158 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.0 29.0 29.9 30.8 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.7 78.9 79.2 79.4 79.7 79.7 79.5 79.5 79.5 79.6 79.8 79.5 HEAT CONTENT 67 78 80 75 69 65 65 64 59 57 59 56 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 145/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 548 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 36. 41. 45. 45. 44. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 30. 36. 41. 44. 44. 43. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 29.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.88 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 4.45 Prob of RI= 18.1% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)