* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 44 45 44 44 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 44 45 44 44 43 41 39 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 18 14 10 12 11 18 13 14 15 8 7 SHEAR DIR 23 33 54 68 65 18 356 359 4 352 333 356 264 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 142 141 137 136 140 140 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 500-300 MB RH 57 55 53 50 48 37 34 31 29 29 31 40 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -1 6 1 2 0 -3 -6 -8 -6 -10 -3 0 850 MB VORT -33 -46 -48 -47 -47 -36 -29 -48 -42 -74 -77 -86 -57 LAND (KM) 783 809 841 906 977 1170 1319 1474 1646 1830 2051 2205 2272 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.6 114.3 115.3 116.3 118.8 120.8 122.9 125.1 127.5 130.3 132.2 133.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 515 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 7 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. 16. 14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.16 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.29 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 3.19 Prob of RI= 12.7% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)