* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 75 68 64 57 52 49 48 47 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 90 83 75 68 64 57 52 49 48 47 44 43 41 SHEAR (KTS) 32 32 35 34 30 30 30 33 31 35 43 55 55 SHEAR DIR 297 291 288 277 262 254 250 260 268 270 263 258 255 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.8 25.2 24.0 22.4 19.7 17.8 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 126 124 122 117 117 112 103 94 83 78 75 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -54.6 -55.5 -56.0 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 56 53 52 47 49 44 53 49 53 50 57 57 64 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 14 44 32 9 0 12 -8 -2 30 68 41 850 MB VORT 24 35 45 51 70 66 67 86 98 91 73 49 48 LAND (KM) 1377 1332 1292 1244 1167 1050 968 952 1010 1123 1285 1506 1288 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.2 34.8 35.5 36.2 37.4 38.8 40.2 41.7 43.7 46.2 48.6 51.1 LONG(DEG W) 55.9 55.2 54.4 53.6 52.7 50.8 48.1 45.4 42.5 39.4 36.0 32.5 28.9 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 631 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -28. -37. -46. -54. -61. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -12. -9. -4. 0. 5. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -40. -44. -46. -48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -15. -22. -26. -33. -38. -41. -42. -43. -46. -47. -49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.24 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.40 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 36.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.09 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 2.17 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)