* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 65 68 73 75 75 73 71 65 59 55 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 65 68 73 75 75 73 71 65 59 55 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 10 12 14 21 23 19 21 28 36 51 59 SHEAR DIR 302 272 263 278 274 276 284 290 282 246 246 235 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 26.9 26.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 157 155 152 148 148 146 141 128 123 114 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 46 52 51 48 48 57 59 48 44 41 38 32 24 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 0 -2 3 -1 -9 -2 0 10 -29 850 MB VORT 34 32 26 8 3 3 -13 -16 -27 4 44 104 170 LAND (KM) 1044 1055 1066 1075 1054 966 898 916 999 1123 1084 1047 838 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.8 30.9 31.7 32.3 33.3 34.8 37.1 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.8 66.9 67.2 67.4 68.0 67.9 67.1 65.8 63.3 59.8 54.8 48.6 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 20 18 19 22 28 26 14 10 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 18. 23. 25. 25. 24. 22. 17. 11. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 15. 18. 23. 25. 25. 23. 21. 15. 9. 5. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 4.66 Prob of RI= 23.9% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)