* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 48 54 58 61 63 61 60 58 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 48 54 58 52 39 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 14 19 19 16 12 11 9 15 10 19 15 17 12 SHEAR DIR 194 190 200 218 215 205 204 202 218 230 265 259 287 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 162 160 160 159 157 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 9 7 9 7 9 6 9 5 500-300 MB RH 55 54 51 48 46 42 39 33 34 34 37 38 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 4 5 4 5 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 27 34 34 10 12 8 9 4 15 0 -8 -8 -25 LAND (KM) 163 124 95 80 66 39 20 17 -3 -36 -109 -117 -98 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.7 30.2 30.8 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 78.9 79.2 79.5 79.8 80.2 80.5 80.7 81.1 81.6 82.5 83.1 83.8 HEAT CONTENT 76 68 64 63 60 58 58 58 56 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 610 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 37. 37. 35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 36. 35. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 4.80 Prob of RI= 29.4% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)