* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 63 60 58 54 52 51 52 54 55 56 55 V (KT) LAND 75 69 63 60 58 54 52 51 52 54 55 56 55 SHEAR (KTS) 34 34 35 31 31 32 30 32 29 26 29 37 39 SHEAR DIR 294 285 276 260 258 252 259 270 266 258 261 254 265 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.4 24.9 23.5 21.8 19.2 17.0 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 125 123 119 117 114 110 100 91 82 77 74 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -54.3 -55.2 -55.0 -54.3 -54.7 -55.4 -56.9 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 54 51 46 50 49 47 51 55 53 55 56 64 62 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 8 44 50 34 -3 1 0 2 13 22 22 6 850 MB VORT 35 47 50 78 76 73 70 96 110 118 98 82 82 LAND (KM) 1339 1305 1276 1194 1116 995 932 952 1041 1181 1368 1499 1184 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.6 35.2 36.0 36.7 38.1 39.5 40.8 42.3 44.3 46.8 49.6 52.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 54.6 53.8 52.8 51.8 49.7 47.2 44.5 41.5 38.3 34.7 31.3 27.7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 660 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 113 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -22. -28. -36. -42. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -3. 1. 5. 9. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -21. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -15. -17. -21. -23. -24. -23. -21. -20. -19. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 26.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.37 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.21 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.15 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 2.03 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)