* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 62 65 69 71 70 67 62 57 52 49 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 62 65 69 71 70 67 62 57 52 49 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 8 13 15 20 20 24 30 49 56 59 52 SHEAR DIR 298 289 278 276 281 281 281 277 265 258 247 239 231 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.0 26.8 25.8 24.4 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 157 154 149 149 142 127 117 106 95 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 500-300 MB RH 48 47 46 47 52 54 51 45 44 49 48 47 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 16 32 28 -5 850 MB VORT 30 22 0 -5 4 -32 -24 -53 -47 -25 21 112 147 LAND (KM) 1044 1052 1061 1066 1071 1019 961 1038 1188 1158 946 967 1158 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.9 30.9 31.8 33.1 35.3 38.6 41.3 43.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.9 67.1 67.2 67.1 65.6 62.3 56.9 49.5 43.6 39.1 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 23 22 20 21 24 14 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 590 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -7. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 20. 19. 17. 13. 8. 4. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 21. 20. 17. 12. 7. 2. -1. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.82 SST (C) : Value: 29.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.86 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 5.12 Prob of RI= 40.7% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)