* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 09/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 54 59 63 65 66 65 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 54 59 63 65 66 65 43 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 17 13 12 10 13 13 14 16 11 16 7 SHEAR DIR 178 190 205 210 199 212 178 223 200 246 254 287 281 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 159 157 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 7 8 500-300 MB RH 55 52 49 49 49 41 39 31 34 32 36 32 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 6 4 6 5 1 4 5 -1 -2 1 1 850 MB VORT 46 48 25 34 39 17 21 -9 8 -29 -8 -43 -3 LAND (KM) 171 153 142 136 132 110 100 87 63 52 50 13 -43 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.8 30.2 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.6 78.7 78.9 79.0 79.4 79.6 79.9 80.2 80.5 80.7 81.2 81.9 HEAT CONTENT 70 66 63 61 58 60 60 61 59 51 44 36 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 533 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 27. 32. 37. 41. 42. 41. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 34. 38. 40. 41. 40. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 9/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 4.67 Prob of RI= 24.0% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)