* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 56 54 52 52 52 52 54 57 60 61 59 V (KT) LAND 65 60 56 54 52 52 52 52 54 57 60 61 59 SHEAR (KTS) 38 33 29 30 30 34 33 35 36 27 32 30 33 SHEAR DIR 290 285 267 261 259 260 272 267 256 258 244 232 235 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.9 25.2 24.4 23.2 21.3 19.0 17.0 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 123 120 117 118 112 106 98 89 81 77 74 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.7 -54.5 -53.6 -54.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -55.2 -55.7 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 50 45 49 48 44 49 49 57 48 47 49 60 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 38 54 37 20 -16 -7 -11 42 0 15 20 13 850 MB VORT 35 31 63 70 62 75 97 109 111 124 145 136 125 LAND (KM) 1325 1294 1222 1154 1093 984 911 900 1004 1148 1327 1518 1294 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.1 35.7 36.4 37.0 38.4 40.0 41.7 43.1 44.9 47.0 49.5 52.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.6 53.7 52.8 51.9 50.9 48.9 46.6 44.2 41.4 38.4 35.2 32.2 29.3 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 105 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 80 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -6. -4. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -3. -5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -8. -5. -4. -6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.26 SST (C) : Value: 26.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.34 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 57.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.28 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.40 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 1.84 Prob of RI= 2.1% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)