* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 66 69 70 68 65 61 55 48 45 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 66 69 70 68 65 61 55 48 45 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 13 17 19 18 20 29 29 44 54 58 58 SHEAR DIR 300 291 275 273 283 288 281 274 265 262 254 249 260 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.2 26.5 25.8 23.8 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 155 155 152 149 142 132 124 117 102 88 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 6 3 2 500-300 MB RH 48 45 47 51 56 56 49 40 34 42 42 42 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 6 -8 -1 0 36 -26 -6 850 MB VORT 20 3 2 19 2 -12 -18 -38 -32 -20 3 35 104 LAND (KM) 1064 1080 1096 1095 1069 1039 1094 1193 1207 1208 982 1091 1540 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 30.3 31.9 33.1 34.1 35.8 38.5 41.5 44.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.5 66.6 66.8 67.0 66.6 64.9 62.1 58.5 54.0 48.6 41.5 33.3 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 23 22 21 22 14 11 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 536 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 13. 10. 7. 1. -5. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 13. 10. 6. 0. -6. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 102.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.69 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.82 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 4.85 Prob of RI= 31.3% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)