* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * SIXTEEN 09/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 51 54 58 61 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 51 54 58 61 49 36 30 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 13 13 11 9 19 15 18 15 14 10 11 SHEAR DIR 187 202 202 201 203 182 214 225 225 254 255 275 251 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 160 159 157 157 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 8 9 7 10 6 9 6 8 500-300 MB RH 50 46 47 46 42 38 36 35 35 36 34 33 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 4 5 6 6 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0 4 850 MB VORT 42 22 21 22 10 0 -5 -6 0 3 34 38 40 LAND (KM) 169 156 147 141 134 98 74 44 41 18 -11 -52 -97 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.6 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.7 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 78.6 78.8 79.0 79.1 79.6 80.3 80.7 80.8 81.1 81.5 82.0 82.5 HEAT CONTENT 65 62 59 56 56 61 54 44 43 38 33 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 480 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 25. 29. 34. 37. 38. 38. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 37. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIXTEEN 9/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 140.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.4% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)