* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/07/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 47 46 47 49 51 54 58 60 60 56 V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 47 46 47 49 51 54 58 60 60 56 SHEAR (KTS) 32 31 31 29 30 34 33 33 29 20 9 13 25 SHEAR DIR 292 267 258 261 259 271 280 265 253 238 217 269 282 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.1 23.7 21.7 18.7 16.7 15.4 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 120 118 117 116 111 101 91 80 76 74 74 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.7 -55.3 -54.9 -53.7 -54.4 -54.3 -55.5 -55.8 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 51 52 51 47 50 51 53 53 54 57 52 43 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 35 48 42 17 1 2 -1 12 47 25 14 12 1 850 MB VORT 14 56 62 54 65 71 97 107 97 102 117 75 1 LAND (KM) 1344 1267 1195 1135 1083 993 953 959 1068 1263 1488 1167 910 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.3 36.0 36.7 37.3 38.8 40.5 42.5 44.7 47.2 49.9 52.1 53.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 52.6 51.6 50.6 49.6 47.4 44.9 42.5 39.6 36.0 31.3 27.4 23.9 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 611 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 78 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -7. -4. -2. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 5. 6. 6. 2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. 3. 5. 5. 1. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/07/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.30 SST (C) : Value: 26.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 66.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.36 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.08 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 1.88 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)