* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/07/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 65 66 68 67 64 59 55 48 42 36 V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 65 66 68 67 64 59 55 48 42 36 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 14 18 19 19 22 35 46 51 55 55 48 SHEAR DIR 295 291 282 284 292 294 280 261 261 253 258 260 279 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.2 26.6 25.8 24.9 23.0 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 155 154 152 146 132 125 117 110 97 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 500-300 MB RH 46 45 49 53 56 52 43 39 40 47 46 58 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -2 -5 -6 -1 -13 -2 0 12 -6 6 5 850 MB VORT 4 -3 8 -9 -20 -18 -34 -27 -35 -25 -21 -26 -75 LAND (KM) 1057 1075 1093 1088 1065 1117 1238 1178 1196 1075 1125 1393 1585 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.9 32.4 34.1 35.6 37.4 39.4 42.2 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 65.2 62.7 59.2 54.8 49.5 43.5 36.7 29.5 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 23 22 26 14 12 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 11. 7. 2. -3. -10. -17. -23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. -1. -5. -12. -18. -24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/07/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.23 Scaled RI index= 4.08 Prob of RI= 12.7% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)