* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/07/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 53 60 65 68 71 72 69 66 64 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 53 60 65 68 71 72 45 33 29 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 12 12 11 15 17 16 19 15 18 10 11 SHEAR DIR 205 208 202 195 203 196 232 220 254 240 270 230 235 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 160 159 155 155 157 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 9 9 8 10 8 9 7 10 8 500-300 MB RH 47 48 46 40 38 38 35 33 34 34 18 14 16 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 4 4 3 0 -3 -4 -5 0 7 -3 -3 850 MB VORT 12 17 24 14 -2 10 -13 13 -2 31 14 22 -14 LAND (KM) 154 144 133 112 90 79 74 54 49 11 -48 -95 -128 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.1 31.0 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.0 79.2 79.5 79.7 80.0 80.3 80.6 80.8 81.3 82.0 82.5 82.8 HEAT CONTENT 56 54 56 60 61 62 54 45 42 34 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 481 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 25. 30. 34. 37. 38. 35. 33. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 18. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. 34. 31. 29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/07/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.63 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.28 Scaled RI index= 4.76 Prob of RI= 27.6% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)