* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 66 65 64 63 64 64 65 64 64 61 57 V (KT) LAND 70 68 66 65 64 63 64 64 65 64 64 61 57 SHEAR (KTS) 34 30 29 29 30 34 31 30 31 32 27 22 27 SHEAR DIR 268 261 259 262 261 275 270 275 270 268 259 287 267 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.3 24.0 22.5 19.7 17.4 15.8 14.5 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 118 117 117 113 103 94 83 78 75 73 72 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -55.6 -56.4 -54.8 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 48 51 51 52 55 59 59 55 59 57 57 50 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 59 47 24 7 0 1 -1 3 13 25 21 26 2 850 MB VORT 52 65 60 62 60 86 102 97 85 73 87 109 101 LAND (KM) 1252 1203 1161 1119 1087 1045 1017 1066 1207 1422 1355 1107 951 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.1 36.6 37.3 37.9 39.5 41.5 43.8 46.3 48.8 51.2 53.8 56.2 LONG(DEG W) 51.4 50.5 49.5 48.4 47.3 44.8 42.6 40.1 37.0 33.6 29.9 26.9 24.4 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 14 CX,CY: 13/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 518 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 125 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -15. -22. -29. -37. -42. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -9. -13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.30 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.27 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 48.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.12 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 2.33 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)