* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 75 75 73 69 63 55 48 41 33 26 V (KT) LAND 70 73 75 75 75 73 69 63 55 48 41 33 26 SHEAR (KTS) 11 17 21 24 21 25 32 35 44 47 42 53 43 SHEAR DIR 309 287 292 296 293 280 267 263 255 250 262 284 303 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.5 26.7 25.8 25.5 24.2 22.5 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 155 154 148 135 126 117 114 104 94 88 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -52.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 500-300 MB RH 46 52 57 58 57 47 38 39 46 39 37 39 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -4 -6 -9 -2 8 0 1 18 13 0 5 -5 850 MB VORT -5 12 0 -3 4 -13 -29 -28 -31 42 50 -26 -111 LAND (KM) 1078 1109 1140 1148 1142 1267 1260 1264 1127 1146 1415 1758 1307 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.1 29.3 30.0 30.6 32.1 33.4 35.0 36.8 38.5 40.1 42.4 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 66.1 65.9 65.5 65.1 62.7 58.9 54.6 50.1 44.6 38.1 31.7 25.2 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 29 32 26 16 12 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -4. -13. -20. -27. -36. -43. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -7. -15. -22. -29. -37. -44. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.54 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.78 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 12.2% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)