* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 62 68 72 73 73 72 68 64 60 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 62 68 72 73 73 72 68 64 60 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 14 14 13 20 20 28 17 23 15 13 11 SHEAR DIR 224 213 215 225 219 218 231 230 256 251 264 246 251 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 164 162 162 162 162 162 162 164 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 9 7 9 6 8 4 7 4 500-300 MB RH 47 44 37 32 35 33 33 27 30 29 22 20 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 4 6 2 0 0 -5 -6 6 2 10 0 3 850 MB VORT 13 19 13 0 5 10 26 20 13 25 26 10 34 LAND (KM) 138 125 118 108 98 91 84 89 100 121 145 162 185 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.7 30.6 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.4 79.6 79.8 80.0 80.2 80.4 80.4 80.3 80.1 79.9 79.7 79.4 HEAT CONTENT 55 57 58 59 60 54 52 49 50 53 54 55 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 534 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 6. 4. 1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 24. 27. 29. 29. 29. 24. 20. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 17. 23. 27. 28. 28. 27. 23. 19. 15. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.32 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 4.44 Prob of RI= 17.9% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)