* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 67 66 65 65 63 61 60 62 62 60 V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 67 66 65 65 63 61 60 62 62 60 SHEAR (KTS) 30 31 30 31 29 30 32 28 41 38 41 39 46 SHEAR DIR 268 250 255 262 262 283 271 260 245 225 222 240 251 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.4 24.8 23.6 21.4 18.4 15.7 13.9 12.5 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 118 117 114 109 100 89 80 75 72 71 70 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.9 -54.6 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -55.5 -55.8 -56.1 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 48 48 52 52 57 60 57 53 62 67 72 65 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 38 21 9 0 13 0 7 18 40 65 53 9 8 850 MB VORT 49 41 51 56 55 80 100 82 86 102 131 143 112 LAND (KM) 1148 1092 1044 1003 977 949 947 1026 1190 1357 1494 1368 1367 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 37.2 37.8 38.6 39.3 40.9 42.7 45.0 47.6 50.4 53.2 56.5 60.0 LONG(DEG W) 50.9 50.0 49.0 47.8 46.6 44.4 42.5 40.0 36.9 34.4 32.6 31.1 29.6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 632 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 91 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -17. -25. -32. -40. -46. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 18. 23. 27. 28. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. -8. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.31 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.24 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 46.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.18 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 57.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.02 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 2.52 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)