* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 80 79 78 73 66 57 49 42 34 28 V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 80 79 78 73 66 57 49 42 34 28 SHEAR (KTS) 24 26 22 23 23 21 26 36 40 44 51 50 33 SHEAR DIR 290 296 294 292 293 275 265 275 250 265 239 251 271 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.1 24.3 22.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 152 145 132 123 117 111 105 96 91 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 500-300 MB RH 48 50 51 54 53 42 37 42 42 39 39 43 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -11 -4 -2 1 3 -16 -25 13 -16 15 -1 7 850 MB VORT 8 -7 -10 6 -2 -8 -15 -14 13 38 80 32 -68 LAND (KM) 1137 1143 1137 1170 1209 1289 1282 1257 1203 1297 1477 1771 1342 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.6 31.1 32.4 34.0 35.4 36.8 38.3 40.0 42.0 44.2 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 65.8 65.6 64.8 64.0 61.2 57.1 52.3 47.2 42.1 37.3 31.8 25.7 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 32 24 22 18 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 676 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 60 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -22. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -18. -25. -32. -39. -46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. -2. -9. -18. -26. -33. -41. -47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 80.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.82 Scaled RI index= 4.48 Prob of RI= 18.8% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)