* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 58 63 66 68 70 70 68 64 61 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 58 63 66 68 70 70 68 64 61 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 12 13 17 19 22 19 14 16 12 13 12 SHEAR DIR 216 221 214 213 211 227 209 244 208 228 226 226 197 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 162 162 164 164 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.7 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 8 9 7 9 7 8 5 7 500-300 MB RH 46 39 34 34 32 31 31 25 22 20 19 23 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 4 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 4 1 850 MB VORT 25 25 0 13 21 12 42 36 54 16 6 -25 15 LAND (KM) 131 122 118 119 121 113 125 124 140 149 171 161 149 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.1 30.1 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.5 79.6 79.7 79.8 80.0 79.9 80.0 79.9 79.8 79.5 79.6 79.8 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 56 57 57 60 59 60 56 56 58 58 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 543 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 22. 24. 27. 27. 24. 20. 18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. 23. 19. 16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.61 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 4.53 Prob of RI= 20.2% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)