* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * TEST 09/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 83 82 81 76 71 63 55 49 42 32 26 V (KT) LAND 80 83 83 82 81 76 71 63 55 49 42 32 26 SHEAR (KTS) 23 26 22 29 26 29 27 36 25 21 13 22 12 SHEAR DIR 292 296 295 284 289 273 263 279 262 322 310 314 344 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.1 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 152 149 139 129 122 118 117 111 106 104 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 500-300 MB RH 48 49 51 53 51 41 37 39 42 39 44 44 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -12 -6 0 9 8 -23 -21 5 0 1 -3 0 850 MB VORT 7 -6 -5 8 -6 -10 -17 -10 -2 -6 -45 -91 -99 LAND (KM) 1126 1138 1121 1138 1164 1196 1222 1262 1437 1822 1923 1578 1397 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.8 30.4 31.2 31.9 33.3 34.7 35.4 35.3 35.0 35.2 35.5 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 65.8 65.5 64.8 64.1 61.1 56.9 51.5 45.0 37.9 31.5 27.1 24.7 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 31 23 20 15 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 672 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -24. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. 0. -5. -10. -18. -25. -30. -37. -46. -52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 3. 2. 1. -4. -9. -17. -25. -31. -38. -48. -54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEST 9/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.43 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 73.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.42 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.35 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.95 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 4.27 Prob of RI= 15.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)