* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 57 55 54 53 51 49 51 54 56 55 V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 57 55 54 53 51 49 51 54 56 55 SHEAR (KTS) 33 30 32 31 36 33 36 43 51 45 48 45 41 SHEAR DIR 261 262 264 271 276 277 272 258 244 224 231 239 250 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.4 22.9 21.0 18.4 15.8 13.9 12.5 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 117 114 112 106 96 88 80 75 72 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.4 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -55.4 -55.7 -56.0 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 47 51 54 56 58 61 52 56 58 60 68 57 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 6 5 9 -13 14 1 30 69 85 30 22 12 850 MB VORT 29 36 38 45 62 85 92 61 60 86 125 120 108 LAND (KM) 1097 1042 998 972 959 953 996 1077 1205 1364 1426 1351 1409 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.9 38.6 39.3 40.0 41.5 43.4 45.4 47.6 50.3 53.6 56.6 59.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 48.9 47.8 46.7 45.6 43.6 41.3 39.1 36.7 34.3 31.7 30.8 30.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 678 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -30. -38. -43. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 27. 31. 31. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -12. -9. -8. -9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. -14. -11. -9. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 25.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 50.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 57.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.03 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 2.14 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)