* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 74 74 71 65 58 49 44 40 35 29 V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 74 74 71 65 58 49 44 40 35 29 SHEAR (KTS) 26 24 21 19 16 23 32 38 51 43 50 42 48 SHEAR DIR 296 306 301 294 286 267 267 259 254 253 270 287 312 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.6 26.7 25.9 25.6 24.4 22.6 21.8 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 152 151 137 126 118 115 106 95 91 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 49 51 56 52 46 37 36 40 32 33 32 37 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -8 -6 -1 4 0 0 -8 7 10 -15 15 7 9 850 MB VORT -12 -19 1 1 -8 -9 0 1 39 111 137 64 -59 LAND (KM) 1154 1171 1192 1254 1320 1263 1268 1193 1249 1408 1666 1446 974 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.2 31.7 33.3 35.0 36.3 37.6 39.6 42.3 44.3 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.1 64.5 63.5 62.4 59.1 54.5 49.5 44.2 38.7 33.0 27.0 20.8 HEAT CONTENT 31 28 22 20 18 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 684 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -19. -25. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -24. -29. -34. -39. -45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -17. -26. -31. -35. -40. -46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.53 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 78.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.47 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 4.60 Prob of RI= 22.0% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)