* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 59 62 64 64 61 57 53 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 52 56 59 62 64 64 61 57 53 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 10 16 17 17 21 7 19 13 10 12 15 SHEAR DIR 212 223 192 203 212 212 231 236 224 250 274 277 294 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 164 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.3 -52.7 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 6 9 6 9 4 7 4 6 500-300 MB RH 41 35 34 32 32 34 28 28 18 16 17 16 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 1 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 9 6 2 -6 850 MB VORT 26 6 13 23 10 38 39 47 37 -49 -94 -82 -96 LAND (KM) 131 122 118 117 110 121 164 185 195 195 185 185 195 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.5 79.6 79.8 80.0 80.0 79.6 79.4 79.3 79.3 79.4 79.4 79.3 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 56 57 59 61 58 56 56 56 56 56 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 573 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 20. 17. 13. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 16. 12. 8. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 62.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.19 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 16.5% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)