* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/08/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 61 60 59 58 56 54 55 56 57 56 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 61 60 59 58 56 54 55 56 57 56 SHEAR (KTS) 28 28 31 34 31 36 33 42 29 29 26 40 39 SHEAR DIR 262 260 262 276 284 276 270 247 234 237 253 265 263 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.8 23.6 22.4 20.4 17.8 15.9 14.5 13.2 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 114 112 109 100 94 86 78 75 73 72 71 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -55.1 -54.9 -55.2 -54.2 -53.1 -53.5 -54.4 -53.4 -54.2 -54.7 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 55 59 59 60 61 62 50 53 59 62 68 74 76 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 8 14 -6 9 3 21 72 33 24 2 10 -9 850 MB VORT 41 39 31 46 54 99 99 94 116 152 164 139 117 LAND (KM) 1044 1003 977 961 961 1000 1051 1128 1274 1471 1287 1151 1178 LAT (DEG N) 37.8 38.6 39.3 40.1 40.9 42.4 44.0 45.9 48.1 50.6 53.3 56.4 59.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 47.8 46.6 45.4 44.2 42.0 40.2 38.2 35.7 32.8 29.5 27.6 26.5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 707 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -26. -33. -40. -45. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/08/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 30.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.30 SST (C) : Value: 25.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.18 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 48.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.11 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 2.40 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)