* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/08/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 76 76 72 65 58 50 45 37 28 21 V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 76 76 72 65 58 50 45 37 28 21 SHEAR (KTS) 26 23 18 18 16 25 36 45 47 49 51 50 43 SHEAR DIR 304 306 298 289 287 270 277 262 278 268 286 302 328 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.1 26.1 25.7 24.8 24.0 22.2 21.0 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 152 149 143 131 120 116 109 103 93 88 84 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.7 -53.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 52 59 52 46 43 40 39 41 35 37 47 52 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -3 2 6 4 -13 -11 -3 -6 16 14 12 -19 850 MB VORT -17 0 8 -1 -13 -6 -1 25 69 55 -44 -121 -149 LAND (KM) 1185 1226 1273 1335 1304 1292 1225 1232 1390 1641 1606 1167 807 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.9 32.5 34.2 35.8 37.2 38.7 40.6 43.2 45.2 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 64.1 63.2 61.8 60.3 56.3 50.9 45.4 40.0 34.5 28.9 23.4 18.0 HEAT CONTENT 28 22 20 19 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 649 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -14. -20. -26. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -5. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -24. -29. -37. -45. -53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -17. -25. -30. -38. -47. -54. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/08/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 76.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.45 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.34 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 4.69 Prob of RI= 24.8% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)