* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/08/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 57 60 63 66 67 67 62 59 54 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 55 57 60 63 66 67 67 62 59 54 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 12 16 16 19 12 9 19 13 15 9 14 SHEAR DIR 205 184 181 195 203 200 250 198 245 248 280 265 264 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 164 164 165 165 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -52.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 11 8 10 7 9 6 7 5 6 5 500-300 MB RH 38 39 36 35 34 32 29 26 20 19 17 16 15 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 -4 -5 -7 -7 0 -2 -1 -1 6 0 -5 -5 850 MB VORT -11 1 6 2 16 45 32 61 25 -27 -111 -66 -81 LAND (KM) 98 96 98 98 100 122 161 192 215 233 267 258 246 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.7 79.7 79.8 79.9 79.9 79.6 79.3 79.0 78.8 78.5 78.6 78.7 HEAT CONTENT 58 58 58 58 59 59 58 56 53 50 46 48 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 640 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 15. 18. 19. 19. 14. 10. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 12. 9. 4. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/08/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.85 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.12 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.13 Prob of RI= 13.3% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)