* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 62 61 60 58 56 54 51 51 53 53 51 V (KT) LAND 65 63 62 61 60 58 56 54 51 51 53 53 51 SHEAR (KTS) 28 31 38 34 34 40 35 33 23 26 41 44 44 SHEAR DIR 268 260 278 286 276 272 255 240 225 253 264 260 243 SST (C) 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.2 22.9 21.0 18.5 16.3 14.5 13.5 12.6 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 110 109 104 96 88 80 76 73 72 71 71 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 56 54 56 59 62 58 58 56 51 61 71 76 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 16 0 7 13 -6 42 47 17 0 27 25 -85 850 MB VORT 35 30 46 57 66 80 75 93 130 175 185 138 170 LAND (KM) 981 938 909 916 938 1023 1092 1199 1371 1446 1207 1103 1057 LAT (DEG N) 38.7 39.6 40.4 41.1 41.8 43.3 45.4 47.5 49.8 52.5 55.6 58.1 60.0 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.0 45.9 44.7 43.5 41.0 38.9 36.8 34.2 31.6 28.6 26.1 23.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 711 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 70 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -28. -35. -43. -48. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 18. 24. 30. 33. 34. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -11. -10. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -14. -12. -12. -14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 25.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.12 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 45.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.17 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.08 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.63 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 2.55 Prob of RI= 3.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)