* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 75 73 67 60 52 45 37 28 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 75 73 67 60 52 45 37 28 19 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 15 16 18 26 32 31 43 45 59 49 32 27 SHEAR DIR 316 310 283 276 264 271 265 276 286 292 312 336 2 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.6 25.8 24.8 23.9 22.3 21.5 20.1 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 149 142 134 125 117 109 102 93 90 84 79 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -52.2 -54.1 -53.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 53 49 44 39 32 32 31 32 38 46 46 39 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 5 13 13 4 -12 -8 0 -9 15 15 -3 -5 850 MB VORT -16 -12 -6 -16 -8 5 21 45 5 -78 -94 -148 -184 LAND (KM) 1276 1343 1362 1321 1306 1311 1227 1355 1630 1651 1335 949 439 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.0 31.7 32.6 33.5 34.9 36.6 38.6 40.8 42.9 44.6 46.7 49.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.7 62.5 61.3 59.5 57.6 53.0 47.1 40.7 34.5 29.4 25.6 20.5 14.4 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 20 15 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 579 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -18. -25. -31. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -30. -37. -45. -54. -62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -15. -23. -30. -38. -47. -56. -63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 71.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.41 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.08 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.81 Scaled RI index= 4.20 Prob of RI= 14.2% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)