* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 62 65 69 68 68 65 63 60 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 62 65 69 68 68 65 63 60 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 14 14 13 16 5 15 16 16 13 14 13 SHEAR DIR 183 167 173 193 191 223 271 239 259 261 263 228 241 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 162 162 164 164 164 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -51.4 -50.8 -52.0 -52.6 -53.4 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 11 9 8 10 7 8 4 5 4 6 5 500-300 MB RH 38 37 35 34 36 32 33 32 21 19 17 21 19 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -5 -9 -5 0 -4 0 0 6 -3 -5 0 0 850 MB VORT 0 5 4 13 29 42 33 57 27 -5 -17 8 46 LAND (KM) 98 107 117 141 169 219 295 323 351 363 416 436 436 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.7 30.2 30.7 31.1 31.2 30.7 30.5 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.5 79.4 79.2 79.0 78.8 78.2 77.4 76.5 76.0 75.9 75.9 75.9 HEAT CONTENT 58 58 56 52 49 47 44 46 54 51 49 49 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 658 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 20. 20. 20. 17. 14. 12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 19. 18. 18. 15. 13. 10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 29.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.80 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.06 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.27 Prob of RI= 15.1% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)