* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 63 62 61 58 57 55 56 60 60 58 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 63 62 61 58 57 55 56 60 60 58 SHEAR (KTS) 33 39 34 33 34 33 41 35 34 37 49 55 63 SHEAR DIR 269 277 289 273 272 270 253 218 239 245 244 233 233 SST (C) 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.4 23.8 22.5 19.8 16.6 14.3 13.3 12.7 12.0 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 110 106 102 94 84 76 73 72 71 71 70 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -54.9 -53.2 -51.9 -51.9 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 52 59 61 65 58 49 52 65 55 64 70 62 65 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 -3 0 6 4 20 67 72 18 0 0 0 -33 850 MB VORT 40 51 61 67 89 67 53 79 147 210 217 195 155 LAND (KM) 967 948 945 960 991 1040 1134 1250 1380 1457 1290 1190 1073 LAT (DEG N) 39.1 39.9 40.6 41.4 42.1 43.9 46.5 49.2 52.0 54.5 56.7 59.3 61.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 46.1 44.9 43.7 42.4 40.4 37.9 35.9 34.3 32.4 29.8 26.8 23.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 758 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 66 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -30. -37. -45. -50. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 27. 34. 39. 40. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -21. -25. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -4. -3. -5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -9. -5. -5. -7. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 34.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.19 SST (C) : Value: 24.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 44.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.16 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.15 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.69 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.69 Scaled RI index= 2.67 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)