* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 73 70 64 58 51 44 37 30 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 73 70 64 58 51 44 37 30 21 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 21 25 30 33 37 37 44 37 42 23 9 10 SHEAR DIR 287 279 268 269 273 282 267 282 277 294 297 289 231 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.0 25.6 24.7 24.0 22.5 20.8 19.1 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 146 139 134 128 119 115 108 103 94 87 82 76 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 48 46 38 34 31 36 36 42 50 56 41 39 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 14 8 10 0 -12 7 2 18 -6 -7 0 1 850 MB VORT -3 1 -11 -6 6 13 47 21 -13 -54 -50 -123 -149 LAND (KM) 1308 1320 1292 1317 1322 1233 1258 1440 1735 1564 1227 765 307 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.2 32.9 33.7 34.4 35.9 37.3 38.8 40.5 42.7 45.6 48.6 51.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.7 61.1 59.4 57.1 54.7 49.7 44.6 39.1 33.3 28.3 24.1 19.6 14.7 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 13 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 603 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -14. -19. -26. -32. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. 0. 4. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -26. -31. -37. -43. -52. -61. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -24. -31. -38. -45. -54. -63. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 25.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.41 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 53.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.87 Scaled RI index= 3.92 Prob of RI= 10.8% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)