* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 63 65 69 72 73 72 71 69 66 64 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 63 65 69 72 73 72 71 69 66 64 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 15 14 17 14 7 16 12 11 2 12 7 SHEAR DIR 178 174 179 192 196 261 259 292 279 295 297 262 292 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 162 164 164 164 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 10 8 10 6 6 5 7 6 8 500-300 MB RH 35 32 32 34 33 34 39 39 33 30 35 36 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -7 -8 0 -2 0 0 8 10 3 10 8 6 850 MB VORT 7 4 5 32 37 13 23 -3 -2 -33 13 19 32 LAND (KM) 107 118 128 154 182 263 354 367 372 382 416 446 454 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.2 30.7 31.1 31.1 30.7 30.4 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 79.4 79.3 79.1 78.9 78.2 77.5 76.7 76.0 75.8 75.9 75.9 75.7 HEAT CONTENT 58 56 55 51 49 43 39 45 44 41 39 38 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 593 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 13. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. 11. 9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.86 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 110.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 4.83 Prob of RI= 30.8% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)