* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 28 30 32 31 28 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 28 30 32 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 22 27 30 29 27 24 20 13 12 16 20 28 28 SHEAR DIR 267 267 268 276 273 258 281 266 268 234 232 230 231 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 135 133 132 131 131 132 133 133 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 500-300 MB RH 46 46 44 47 45 52 56 49 43 42 47 46 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) -6 -2 -1 -6 1 -5 3 0 0 -1 0 3 5 850 MB VORT -7 -2 2 2 5 24 32 50 56 66 74 84 69 LAND (KM) 1521 1426 1331 1246 1161 1006 865 749 640 538 479 425 377 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.2 143.0 143.8 144.5 145.9 147.2 148.3 149.5 150.5 151.1 151.5 151.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 598 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 8. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 26.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.09 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.30 Scaled RI index= 2.28 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)