* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 56 55 55 53 53 54 58 63 64 62 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 56 55 55 53 53 54 58 63 64 62 SHEAR (KTS) 39 37 35 40 37 41 39 42 32 44 51 59 54 SHEAR DIR 278 279 286 272 278 270 252 229 233 234 226 223 222 SST (C) 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.2 23.6 21.9 19.6 15.5 12.8 11.4 10.7 10.5 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 110 104 100 91 83 74 71 70 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -54.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -52.3 -51.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 56 61 64 61 59 54 59 56 62 71 70 64 68 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 8 8 -10 0 30 64 15 1 -12 0 -6 -11 850 MB VORT 50 61 65 75 78 84 88 141 162 140 162 146 197 LAND (KM) 972 965 968 975 1000 1073 1130 1228 1416 1491 1445 1377 1260 LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.0 40.6 41.5 42.4 44.4 46.7 50.3 54.5 57.7 59.1 61.2 63.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.5 45.5 44.5 43.3 42.0 39.7 37.9 36.2 34.4 32.9 31.6 29.3 25.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 766 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -29. -36. -43. -47. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 24. 33. 41. 46. 46. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -6. -5. -1. 4. 6. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -2. 3. 4. 2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 37.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.12 SST (C) : Value: 24.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.06 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 48.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.19 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.78 Scaled RI index= 2.12 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)