* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 77 73 69 61 53 45 36 30 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 77 73 69 61 53 45 36 30 22 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 27 34 38 39 36 42 41 47 27 12 9 15 SHEAR DIR 282 269 266 268 274 278 268 271 265 274 279 179 166 SST (C) 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.1 24.0 22.3 21.5 20.4 19.4 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 135 129 125 122 117 111 103 93 90 86 82 79 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -52.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 44 39 36 37 37 40 40 45 50 49 44 38 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 21 10 22 4 -9 -5 0 14 21 0 -2 10 3 850 MB VORT -14 -23 -13 3 16 33 37 18 0 -40 -75 -49 -67 LAND (KM) 1270 1232 1226 1216 1167 1178 1266 1473 1743 1430 1083 748 451 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.6 34.6 35.4 36.2 36.8 38.4 40.4 42.7 44.7 46.3 47.9 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.1 59.1 57.1 54.8 52.5 48.0 42.5 37.0 31.7 26.8 22.3 18.5 14.9 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 7 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -27. -35. -41. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -10. -8. -2. 3. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -13. -21. -28. -36. -44. -50. -57. -64. -71. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -3. -7. -11. -19. -27. -35. -44. -50. -58. -66. -72. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 32.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.25 SST (C) : Value: 27.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 51.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.22 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 51.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.84 Scaled RI index= 3.62 Prob of RI= 7.2% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)