* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 77 79 83 87 87 85 83 80 75 71 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 77 79 83 87 87 85 83 80 75 71 SHEAR (KTS) 14 10 12 19 18 4 9 9 9 6 13 9 22 SHEAR DIR 193 189 184 194 224 323 263 293 244 278 201 194 194 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 11 10 8 9 6 7 6 8 5 8 500-300 MB RH 33 33 34 33 32 35 33 32 28 29 27 28 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -6 0 -4 -7 2 4 9 4 1 4 1 19 850 MB VORT 8 7 31 40 42 23 24 3 2 33 42 56 65 LAND (KM) 117 140 165 202 240 340 353 373 440 483 444 398 360 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 30.1 30.8 31.0 30.5 30.0 29.6 29.6 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.2 79.0 78.7 78.4 77.6 76.8 76.2 75.8 75.8 76.2 76.7 77.3 HEAT CONTENT 56 53 50 47 43 39 47 44 37 41 46 47 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 592 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 16. 20. 21. 20. 19. 16. 12. 8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 12. 14. 18. 22. 22. 20. 18. 15. 10. 6. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.60 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 56.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 4.54 Prob of RI= 20.5% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)