* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 09/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 27 30 33 35 38 40 38 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 27 30 33 35 38 40 38 35 SHEAR (KTS) 27 30 29 25 24 22 15 14 16 21 23 27 32 SHEAR DIR 263 266 265 260 256 271 272 274 270 251 233 233 236 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 135 133 132 132 133 135 136 137 137 138 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 500-300 MB RH 45 46 48 47 52 56 52 52 44 45 51 49 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -3 -3 -1 -2 1 -5 1 -2 0 -1 7 1 850 MB VORT 8 11 15 13 13 21 34 62 56 79 83 75 62 LAND (KM) 1359 1259 1159 1079 999 830 679 548 421 306 206 84 3 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 142.8 143.7 144.6 145.4 146.1 147.7 149.2 150.6 152.0 153.2 154.1 155.0 155.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 703 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 18. 15. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 9/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 27.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.05 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.42 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 2.28 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)