* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * MARIA 09/09/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 51 51 50 50 51 51 56 60 60 55 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 51 51 50 50 51 51 56 60 60 55 SHEAR (KTS) 36 35 37 35 32 33 30 33 29 38 44 41 32 SHEAR DIR 287 289 280 282 267 255 232 230 236 238 229 228 232 SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.6 22.9 20.4 17.0 14.1 12.5 11.5 11.5 11.2 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 112 108 104 100 96 86 77 73 71 70 70 70 69 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -51.9 -52.7 -52.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 65 68 64 64 59 56 61 52 61 66 66 64 69 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 2 -6 -4 21 35 43 5 7 -11 -8 -6 4 850 MB VORT 59 62 82 96 85 78 116 164 177 162 155 107 119 LAND (KM) 1024 1038 1060 1076 1113 1168 1261 1445 1362 1300 1258 1168 1116 LAT (DEG N) 39.8 40.4 40.9 42.0 43.1 45.8 48.8 52.6 56.5 59.1 60.1 62.2 65.0 LONG(DEG W) 44.7 43.7 42.6 41.3 39.9 37.7 35.8 33.5 31.0 29.0 27.4 24.9 21.2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 744 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -29. -34. -41. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 23. 29. 37. 44. 48. 46. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -22. -26. -30. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 2. 7. 6. 2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 1. 5. 5. 0. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MARIA 9/09/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 35.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.18 SST (C) : Value: 24.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 49.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.20 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 2.34 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)