* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NATE 09/09/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 64 61 58 52 45 38 31 27 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 64 61 58 52 45 38 31 27 22 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 27 30 29 34 31 40 47 52 46 42 40 40 SHEAR DIR 268 257 260 274 276 274 264 258 265 276 269 259 263 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.2 23.8 20.6 18.3 17.1 15.7 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 128 125 121 117 112 102 86 79 77 75 74 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -52.1 -52.8 -53.5 -52.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 38 36 35 37 36 33 42 51 64 65 59 52 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 10 3 0 -30 9 1 12 -2 6 0 24 -2 850 MB VORT -14 -10 0 -1 -3 -8 -13 6 -31 -84 -67 -80 -62 LAND (KM) 1275 1310 1328 1334 1305 1337 1405 1553 1482 886 458 153 -82 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.7 34.2 34.7 35.2 36.1 37.7 41.0 45.9 49.3 51.5 53.3 53.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.3 57.2 55.1 52.5 49.9 45.5 41.1 35.4 28.3 22.1 16.9 12.1 8.3 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 654 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -22. -29. -35. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 8. 13. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -24. -31. -37. -41. -46. -53. -59. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -25. -32. -39. -43. -48. -54. -61. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NATE 9/09/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 28.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.34 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 59.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.29 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 50.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.84 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 2.95 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)