* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * OPHELIA 09/09/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 63 64 68 70 70 69 71 70 70 69 V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 63 64 68 70 70 69 71 70 70 69 SHEAR (KTS) 13 9 15 20 15 1 20 12 16 5 8 2 9 SHEAR DIR 220 203 203 236 278 286 313 265 277 290 266 294 278 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 164 162 162 164 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.4 -50.9 -50.0 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 10 8 11 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 500-300 MB RH 33 35 33 31 31 39 38 39 33 37 38 39 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 0 0 -3 0 -1 12 6 6 11 1 0 0 850 MB VORT 7 30 37 45 23 24 -7 0 -25 18 28 62 61 LAND (KM) 134 165 196 244 294 341 366 368 387 436 456 410 346 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.0 30.5 29.7 29.7 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.1 78.8 78.5 78.1 77.4 76.6 76.1 75.9 75.9 76.1 76.6 77.3 HEAT CONTENT 54 50 48 43 41 41 46 44 41 37 44 46 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 622 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 10. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) OPHELIA 9/09/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.71 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 55.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.65 Scaled RI index= 4.19 Prob of RI= 14.0% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)